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‹ HOU vs BUF

WEEK 1 ·

HOUBUF

PROVISIONAL · LATE-WEEK INPUTS STILL MOVING

DATA STALE

  • DEPTH CHARTS 120 h since ingest, threshold 48 h
  • INJURIES 551 h since ingest, threshold 36 h
  • SCHEDULES 550 h since ingest, threshold 168 h
  • WEATHER 551 h since ingest, threshold 24 h

ARCADIA SCORE

PASS CONFIDENCE

Arcadia Score, four hundred five out of one thousand, Pass confidence
How far to trust the tier table. The confidence tiers are not in outcome order on the measured season — Very High 0.806452 over Elite 0.800000, a gap of 0.006452. A higher tier with a lower hit rate is a failure of the monotone criterion, and it is disclosed here because it was not remediated. score_tier_stats, pinned to one persisted run via eval_runs · run exit8-persist-0814-tiers-2025

Model win probability 65.5% ± 6.7

WHY BUF HAS THE EDGE

  • TEAM FORM +38.7 pts toward the verdict
  • INJURY ADJUSTMENT +13.4 pts toward the verdict
  • QUARTERBACK EDGE +12.9 pts toward the verdict
  • WEATHER +8.1 pts toward the verdict
  • REST AND TRAVEL +4.5 pts toward the verdict
  • LONG-RUN RATING −1.1 pts against the verdict
  • OFFENSIVE MATCHUP +0.0 pts neutral for the verdict
  • MARKET VALUE n/a not measured

Market Value inert in v1 — closing lines are kickoff-gated, so nothing is knowable pregame.

Weather is ruled inert in v1, yet this edition carries a contribution for it. Both are reported; the ruling and the artifact disagree.

CONTRIBUTIONS IN PROBABILITY POINTS · BAR LENGTH IS SHARE OF THE LARGEST

KEY SIGNALS

  • {'components': [{'coef': 0.08079672319463677, 'contribution_logit': 0.160025275380067, 'feature': 'form_success_off_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': True, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -1.9805911558389706}, {'coef': 0.07578290631957513, 'contribution_logit': 0.13163262979297935, 'feature': 'form_epa_off_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': True, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -1.7369699340625309}, {'coef': 0.049671982194003456, 'contribution_logit': 0.08831741322267286, 'feature': 'form_rush_epa_off_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': True, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -1.7780126606933515}, {'coef': -0.041006930242468057, 'contribution_logit': -0.07609610624334467, 'feature': 'form_rush_epa_def_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': False, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -1.855688923638014}, {'coef': 0.06017749693010474, 'contribution_logit': 0.07598854231327, 'feature': 'form_pass_epa_off_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': True, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -1.2627401635121107}, {'coef': 0.04071829385017399, 'contribution_logit': 0.06997811445021301, 'feature': 'form_n_games_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': -1.7185915182915747}, {'coef': 0.041483725450839, 'contribution_logit': 0.06891169411345345, 'feature': 'form_explosive_off_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': True, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -1.661174192156836}, {'coef': 0.024105972620575684, 'contribution_logit': -0.06798394442994561, 'feature': 'form_n_games_mean', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': 2.8202116338553305}, {'coef': -0.024914006034864364, 'contribution_logit': -0.03932312227325848, 'feature': 'form_explosive_def_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': False, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -1.5783540478488354}, {'coef': -0.010371963590337124, 'contribution_logit': 0.027458862441461496, 'feature': 'form_prior_frac_mean', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': 2.647412151257753}, {'coef': 0.013451586073353354, 'contribution_logit': -0.02446811681276991, 'feature': 'matchup_pass_edge_mean', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': 1.8189763407334936}, {'coef': -0.010963573122960589, 'contribution_logit': -0.020521721048458733, 'feature': 'form_epa_def_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': False, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -1.8718095659416805}, {'coef': -0.007282564504400523, 'contribution_logit': -0.014088683292834886, 'feature': 'form_success_def_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': False, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -1.9345772061918207}, {'coef': 0.012317549196960128, 'contribution_logit': 0.013065745831734104, 'feature': 'form_pass_epa_def_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': False, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -1.0607423297289225}, {'coef': 0.008531290269600455, 'contribution_logit': -0.006673495720160758, 'feature': 'matchup_rush_edge_mean', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': 0.7822375642217243}, {'coef': 0.03677659167749323, 'contribution_logit': 0.0004263607877385505, 'feature': 'form_pointdiff_decayed_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': True, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -0.011593265397659931}, {'coef': 0.04567456098438816, 'contribution_logit': 4.062801681972086e-05, 'feature': 'form_prior_frac_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': -0.0008895108336915983}, {'coef': 0.0, 'contribution_logit': -0.0, 'feature': 'form_inputs_absent', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': 0.0}], 'family_contribution_logit': 0.3866900765296365, 'feature_value': -0.08684981732060293, 'oriented_to': 'away', 'provenance_contribution_logit': 0.02949366047854862, 'representative_is_provenance': False} TEAM FORM · +8.1 pts
  • {'components': [{'coef': 0.05496744586677124, 'contribution_logit': 0.04801422737234039, 'feature': 'qb_cpoe_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': True, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -0.8735029728089623}, {'coef': 0.04849809981481904, 'contribution_logit': 0.032978342497973864, 'feature': 'qb_value_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': True, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -0.6799924661769331}, {'coef': 0.05693385868221376, 'contribution_logit': 0.03089451769105998, 'feature': 'qb_experience_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': True, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -0.5426387461897341}, {'coef': 0.02196500682331482, 'contribution_logit': 0.011430391231186079, 'feature': 'qb_uncertainty_mean', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': -0.5203909711083384}, {'coef': 0.005326189691059842, 'contribution_logit': 0.003038354971482578, 'feature': 'qb_is_backup_mean', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -0.5704556442258415}, {'coef': 0.0247205567183512, 'contribution_logit': 0.0020310372511551994, 'feature': 'qb_diff_inputs_absent', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': -0.08215985077906711}, {'coef': -0.012478648777462076, 'contribution_logit': 0.0003733312317680086, 'feature': 'qb_is_backup_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': False, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': 0.029917600729518826}, {'coef': -0.012106979968260365, 'contribution_logit': 0.00012898493721543033, 'feature': 'qb_uncertainty_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': 0.010653766468068584}, {'coef': 0.0, 'contribution_logit': -0.0, 'feature': 'qb_away_expected_id_missing', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': 0.0}, {'coef': 0.0, 'contribution_logit': -0.0, 'feature': 'qb_chart_is_offseason_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': 0.0}, {'coef': 0.0, 'contribution_logit': -0.0, 'feature': 'qb_chart_is_offseason_mean', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': 0.0}, {'coef': 0.0, 'contribution_logit': -0.0, 'feature': 'qb_home_expected_id_missing', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': 0.0}], 'family_contribution_logit': 0.12888918718418152, 'feature_value': -5.01410891089395, 'oriented_to': 'away', 'provenance_contribution_logit': 0.013590413419556708, 'representative_is_provenance': False} QUARTERBACK EDGE · +2.6 pts

RISK FACTORS

  • models disagree
  • the feature frame was thin

DATA QUALITY

PUBLICATION GATE PASSED

DEGRADED INJURIES STALEWEATHER MISSINGODDS OUTDATEDDATA THIN

FLAGS DATA THIN

LIVE GATE PUBLISHABLE INJURIES FRESHWEATHER AVAILABLEDATA COMPLETE

no features computed for this game at this as_of

PREDICTION HISTORY

Arcadia Score across model runs
  1. 430 Pass BUF v1-logreg-mf-2026.08c
  2. 405 Pass BUF v1-logreg-mf-2026.08c