‹ DET vs NO
WEEK 1 ·
DETNO
PROVISIONAL · LATE-WEEK INPUTS STILL MOVING
ARCADIA SCORE
STRONG CONFIDENCE
How far to trust the tier table. The confidence tiers are not in outcome order on the measured season — Very High 0.806452 over Elite 0.800000, a gap of 0.006452. A higher tier with a lower hit rate is a failure of the monotone criterion, and it is disclosed here because it was not remediated.
score_tier_stats, pinned to one persisted run via eval_runs · run exit8-persist-0814-tiers-2025
Model win probability 67.0% ± 7.0
WHY DET HAS THE EDGE
- TEAM FORM +42.6 pts toward the verdict
- LONG-RUN RATING +15.9 pts toward the verdict
- INJURY ADJUSTMENT −13.4 pts against the verdict
- QUARTERBACK EDGE +12.3 pts toward the verdict
- WEATHER +3.7 pts toward the verdict
- REST AND TRAVEL +0.6 pts toward the verdict
- OFFENSIVE MATCHUP +0.0 pts neutral for the verdict
- MARKET VALUE n/a not measured
Market Value inert in v1 — closing lines are kickoff-gated, so nothing is knowable pregame.
Weather is ruled inert in v1, yet this edition carries a contribution for it. Both are reported; the ruling and the artifact disagree.
CONTRIBUTIONS IN PROBABILITY POINTS · BAR LENGTH IS SHARE OF THE LARGEST
KEY SIGNALS
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- {'components': [{'coef': 0.07123315194541688, 'contribution_logit': 0.08189330920922533, 'feature': 'elo_prob_home', 'higher_is_home_advantage': True, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': 1.1496516295106092}, {'coef': 0.07137124372094657, 'contribution_logit': 0.07818878741742498, 'feature': 'elo_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': True, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': 1.0955222767748622}, {'coef': 0.009371095193614449, 'contribution_logit': -0.0013243273421257853, 'feature': 'elo_mean', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -0.1413204449174942}, {'coef': 0.0, 'contribution_logit': 0.0, 'feature': 'elo_diff_missing', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': 0.0}, {'coef': 0.0, 'contribution_logit': 0.0, 'feature': 'elo_mean_missing', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': 0.0}, {'coef': 0.0, 'contribution_logit': 0.0, 'feature': 'elo_prob_home_missing', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': 0.0}], 'family_contribution_logit': 0.15875776928452454, 'feature_value': 0.7483431817335826, 'oriented_to': 'home', 'provenance_contribution_logit': 0.0, 'representative_is_provenance': False}
- {'components': [{'coef': 0.05693385868221376, 'contribution_logit': 0.1015146268242132, 'feature': 'qb_experience_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': True, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': 1.7830273439015394}, {'coef': 0.04849809981481904, 'contribution_logit': 0.04201047512661498, 'feature': 'qb_value_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': True, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': 0.8662293014989073}, {'coef': 0.02196500682331482, 'contribution_logit': -0.011430391231186079, 'feature': 'qb_uncertainty_mean', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': -0.5203909711083384}, {'coef': 0.05496744586677124, 'contribution_logit': -0.003915476820686469, 'feature': 'qb_cpoe_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': True, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -0.07123264977922944}, {'coef': 0.005326189691059842, 'contribution_logit': -0.003038354971482578, 'feature': 'qb_is_backup_mean', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': -0.5704556442258415}, {'coef': 0.0247205567183512, 'contribution_logit': -0.0020310372511551994, 'feature': 'qb_diff_inputs_absent', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': -0.08215985077906711}, {'coef': -0.012478648777462076, 'contribution_logit': -0.0003733312317680086, 'feature': 'qb_is_backup_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': False, 'is_provenance': False, 'z': 0.029917600729518826}, {'coef': -0.012106979968260365, 'contribution_logit': -0.00012898493721543033, 'feature': 'qb_uncertainty_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': 0.010653766468068584}, {'coef': 0.0, 'contribution_logit': 0.0, 'feature': 'qb_away_expected_id_missing', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': 0.0}, {'coef': 0.0, 'contribution_logit': 0.0, 'feature': 'qb_chart_is_offseason_diff', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': 0.0}, {'coef': 0.0, 'contribution_logit': 0.0, 'feature': 'qb_chart_is_offseason_mean', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': 0.0}, {'coef': 0.0, 'contribution_logit': 0.0, 'feature': 'qb_home_expected_id_missing', 'higher_is_home_advantage': None, 'is_provenance': True, 'z': 0.0}], 'family_contribution_logit': 0.1226075255073344, 'feature_value': 2.166248649441914, 'oriented_to': 'home', 'provenance_contribution_logit': -0.013590413419556708, 'representative_is_provenance': False}
RISK FACTORS
- the feature frame was thin
DATA QUALITY
PUBLICATION GATE PASSED
DEGRADED INJURIES STALEODDS OUTDATEDDATA THIN
FLAGS DATA THIN
LIVE GATE PUBLISHABLE INJURIES FRESHDATA COMPLETE
no features computed for this game at this as_of
PREDICTION HISTORY
- 709 Strong DET v1-logreg-mf-2026.08c
- 685 Strong DET v1-logreg-mf-2026.08c