‹ LA vs SF
WEEK 1 · 2026-09-10 · 20:35 ET
LASF
ARCADIA SCORE
MODERATE CONFIDENCE
How far to trust the tier table. The confidence tiers are not in outcome order on the measured season — Very High 0.806452 over Elite 0.800000, a gap of 0.006452. A higher tier with a lower hit rate is a failure of the monotone criterion, and it is disclosed here because it was not remediated.
score_tier_stats, pinned to one persisted run via eval_runs · run exit8-persist-0814-tiers-2025
Moderate is the higher tier but not the better outcome: Pass hit 0.619048 against Moderate's 0.456522 over 250 scored games, a deficit of 0.162526. Tier order and outcome order disagree here; the failure is reported rather than tuned away, and Moderate is not claimed to be distinguishable from Pass on this evidence.
score_tier_stats, pinned to one persisted run via eval_runs
Model win probability 61.1%
WHY LA HAS THE EDGE
No per-family contributions were recorded for this game.
KEY SIGNALS
No signal cleared the reporting threshold for this game.
RISK FACTORS
No risk factor was recorded at this as-of.
DATA QUALITY
LIVE GATE PUBLISHABLE INJURIES FRESHDATA COMPLETE
no features computed for this game at this as_of
PREDICTION HISTORY
- 605 Moderate LA v1-logreg-mf-2026.08c